A quick introduction to Theory of Change for M&E practitioners
This is a short introduction to the Theory of Change, also written as ToC, covering:
- Understanding the Theory of Change
- The formula to write a Theory of Change
- Steps for developing a Theory of Change
For a complete presentation and more details, make sure to watch the Webinar Series “From Theory of Change to database design”.
This article is also available in French and Spanish.
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Understanding the Theory of Change
The Theory of Change describes:
- The logical flow between a key problem and its root causes
- The long‑term change it seeks to achieve in response to the key problem
- What needs to happen in order for this change to occur
As a tool, it supports practitioners addressing assumptions about change that can often be side-lined. It also forces them to detect and highlight knowledge gaps so as to revisit them over time.
The Theory of Change is needed because:
- It helps articulate and justify a project’s logic, making it easier to work with the strategic objectives and intermediate results we seek to achieve
- It supports project teams and their cooperation
- It facilitates internal learning and communication of the project’s goals and objectives to other stakeholders
Source: Practical Guidance on Developing a Projects Theory of Change by CRS
The formula for Theory of Change
To write a Theory of Change, you can follow the formula:
If we do X and Y hold true, then we will achieve Z because A, B, and C.
Where:
- X: long-term change preconditions that need to be addressed by the intervention; to identify them, we conduct gap analysis during the initial assessment
- Y: assumptions that the intervention will not directly address but we acknowledge that are critical for the achievement of the long-term goal, (e.g. Context factors, Results by other actors, etc.)
- Z: the long-term change for the core problem
- A, B, and C: evidence that proves the hypothesis holds true
Example:
- If we enable refugees to enter the local labor market and generate income (X)
- And the government provides work permits based on refugee status (Y),
- Then refugees will be integrated (Z)
- Because studies have shown that accessing the labor market is an enabling factor of integration (A,B,C).
Source: Practical Guidance on Developing a Projects Theory of Change by CRS
Steps to develop the Theory of Change
- Use assessment data to identify the core problem and causes.
- Identify how causes lead to the problem and assumptions that may affect this.
- Decide what intervention is needed and specify the causes to address.
- Produce the Theory of Change and then transform it into a Results Framework.
Tip: Ensure that relevant stakeholders are heard and involved and treat it as a living document, go back and revise.
Source: Practical Guidance on Developing a Projects Theory of Change by CRS